How To Interpret Media Leaks Regarding The Ukraine Offensive

When I joined the CIA in September of 1985 it was my first exposure to classified information. Initially, I believed that the classification system was designed to prevent the public from knowing the “real truth” about what was happening in the world. In the months that followed I discovered that Top Secret, Special Compartmented Intelligence, appeared routinely on the front pages of the Washington Post and the New York Times.

What was the difference between leaked intelligence and the intel reports that did not appear in the press? It boiled down to something pretty simple — if there was disagreement over a particular policy, such as placing nuclear missiles in Europe, that intelligence leaked. Conversely, if there was consensus over a policy or program that information rarely leaked.

I raise this because of the spate of articles now appearing in the establishment media that are painting a dire, gloomy picture of Ukraine’s much ballyhooed counter offensive. That is not a coincidence nor is it the result of intrepid journalism. Support for Ukraine in Washington is starting to crumble. While the Austin, Milley, Blinken and Nuland crowd continue to insist that victory is just around the corner (all we need is more cow bell), others at the Pentagon, the CIA, the DNI and DIA see the writing on the wall spelling out a message of looming disaster.

The Washington Post ran this piece earlier this week:

Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory. (The Washington Post — pay wall).

Ukraine is running out of options in its counteroffensive against Russian forces, as Kiev’s time-window to gain advances is closing, the Washington Post has reported.

In an article on Sunday, the U.S. daily has claimed that Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which was launched in early June and was initially expected to see Kiev taking back significant territory, currently “shows signs of stalling.”

“Kiev’s advances remain isolated to a handful of villages, Russian troops are pushing forward in the north and a plan to train Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-made F-16s is delayed,” wrote the U.S. newspaper.

The rest of the media is singing a similar tune. Here are some of the latest headlines:

Ukraine’s dreams of counter-offensive triumph have hit a hard reality. (The Telegraph — pay wall).

Ukraine’s sluggish counter-offensive is souring the public mood. (The Economist — pay wall).

Ukraine’s Reset: A Slow and Bloody Advance on Foot. (The Wall Street Journal — pay wall).

Then there are the blogs and internet content. Real Clear Defense has been generally pro-Ukraine with its coverage over the last 18 months but, unlike the Institute for the Study of War, has offered occasionally some solid analysis questioning Ukraine’s chances of vanquishing Russia. The latest piece on Real Clear Defense, Why Is Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Destined To Fail?, is a stark warning that the Fat Lady is starting to sing:

The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive was predicted to break through Russian echelon defenses swiftly, however, it turned into a stalemate. The operation was strategically planned and executed with misguided optimism, as Ukraine’s defense strategists underestimated the strength of the adversary. It was launched under the wishful thinking of the Ukrainian government assuming that Russian soldiers would desert their positions and run away from their trenches in the first waves of the counterattack. However, the opposite happened, and Russians are holding their positions, occasionally launching counterattacks, and not allowing Ukraine’s land forces to breach their defenses. Already two months have passed since the launch of the offensive and Ukraine’s military has yet to make significant gains. With the current situation, the highly anticipated counteroffensive is destined to fail.

These articles are the early warning signs, like a canary in a mine shaft, that finger pointing and the blame game will take center stage in Washington, London and Brussels starting in September about who lost Ukraine. I fully expect that the Biden Administration will continue to insist that Ukraine is fighting Russia to a standstill and all the West has to do is exercise patience and wait for Russia to crumble. This is delusional, but that has been the distinguishing mindset of the Biden/neo-con crowd.

Events on the ground in Ukraine will force a change in thinking. Members of Congress will be preoccupied increasingly with the 2024 election and are likely to refuse to endorse further weapon sales and massive financial aid to Ukraine. Backing a loser is something that most politicians refuse to do.

There are a number of potential events that will result in Ukraine being put on the back burner. Worsening relations between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan raises the risk of a military conflict in the South China Sea. How about a financial crisis? October historically is the month when economic chaos explodes “unexpectedly” on Wall Street. If that occurs then Ukraine’s chances of getting more aid will vanish.

So, pay attention to the headlines and articles, especially those citing unnamed military or intelligence sources. That will tell you which way the wind is blowing.

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Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Points Finger at Automakers for Skyrocketing Car Thefts — Files Outlandish Lawsuit Against Kia and Hyundai

Democrat Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has decided to take legal action against automakers Kia and Hyundai, blaming them for the significant increase in car thefts in the city.

In a lawsuit filed Thursday, Johnson alleges that the companies have a “critical defect” in their vehicles that makes them more susceptible to theft.

For those who have been closely following the rise in crimes in Chicago, the mayor’s lawsuit is an attempt to shift the spotlight away from his own administration’s shortcomings. Crime rates in the city, including car thefts, have been on the rise for several years now because of Democrats’ soft on crime, but the decision to blame car manufacturers rather than address the underlying issues feels nothing short of absurd.

“The impact of car theft on Chicago residents can be deeply destabilizing, particularly for low- to middle-income workers who have fewer options for getting to work and taking care of their families,” said Mayor Brandon Johnson.

“The failure of Kia and Hyundai to install basic auto-theft prevention technology in these models is sheer negligence, and as a result, a citywide and nationwide crime spree around automobile theft has been unfolding right before our eyes,” he added.

From the press release:

Mayor Brandon Johnson announced today that the City has filed a civil lawsuit against Kia America, Inc., Kia Corporation, Hyundai Motor America, and Hyundai Motor Company for their failure to include industry-standard engine immobilizers in multiple models of their vehicles, resulting in a steep rise in vehicle thefts, reckless driving, property damage, and a wide array of related violent crimes in Chicago.

The complaint, which was filed in the Circuit Court of Cook County, alleges that Kia and Hyundai failed to equip their U.S. cars, sold between 2011 and 2022, with vital anti-theft technology, which almost all other car manufacturers made a standard feature over a decade ago and which Kia and Hyundai include in their vehicles sold outside of the country. The Complaint alleges that Kia and Hyundai deceptively assured consumers that these vehicles possessed “advanced” safety features, despite knowing about this critical defect and its consequences.

Since videos posted on social media exposed this defect, thefts of Kia and Hyundai vehicles in Chicago surged from about 500 in the first half of 2022 to more than 8,350 during the second half of the year. Thefts of Kia and Hyundai vehicles continue to comprise more than half of all vehicles stolen in Chicago in 2023.

Because these vehicles are entry-level models, Kia’s and Hyundai’s failure to include engine immobilizers disproportionately impacts low-income Chicago residents. Moreover, offenders have used stolen Kia and Hyundai vehicles to commit other crimes, including reckless driving, armed robbery, and murder.

Kia and Hyundai have failed to remedy their misconduct, refusing to provide sufficient steering wheel locks requested by the City and even taking advantage of the crisis by charging consumers for security kits.

The City’s Complaint alleges that Defendants’ actions violated the City’s consumer protection laws, were negligent, and created a public nuisance. The City aims to reclaim expenses incurred by the City in responding to the wave of thefts, provide restitution to Chicago owners of affected vehicles, and compel the companies to fix security flaws in affected vehicles.

“This is about saving lives and preventing the violent crimes that these stolen vehicles are used in,” said Interim Superintendent Fred Waller. “As law enforcement, we are doing everything we can to prevent these thefts, but these vehicle companies must also be held accountable.”

Chicago is the latest Democrat city to sue Kia and Hyundai due to manufacturing cars that are easily stolen.

In March, the city of Milwaukee sued Kia and Hyundai for creating “nuisance levels of automobile theft” in the city.

In May, the City of Baltimore sued both Hyundai and Kia in federal court for producing cars that lack anti-theft technology.

In the lawsuit, the City of Baltimore is blaming Kia and Hyundai vehicles for making up 40% of car thefts in the city.

Per WBALTV:

Baltimore City is suing Hyundai and Kia in federal court for actions the city says are fueling a “vehicular crime wave.”

The lawsuit, filed Thursday, claims the business decision by the automakers to not equip vehicles with anti-theft technology is behind the city’s massive spike in car thefts.

In June, New York City filed a lawsuit against Kia and Hyundai, claiming that the two automakers have failed to implement adequate anti-theft measures, resulting in a significant rise in car theft incidents.

The lawsuit cited concerns over public safety, emphasizing the potential risk of death and injury posed by easily stolen cars.

“This case is a clear example of what happens to public safety when car manufacturers choose not to include standard anti-theft technology in their cars,” according to the 39-page suit filed.

“Hyundai’s and Kia’s business decisions to reduce costs, and thereby boost profits, by foregoing common anti-theft technology have resulted in an epidemic of thefts.”

Last year, Saint Louis City filed a class action lawsuit against the two car manufacturers for a surge of auto thefts.

In May, Kia and Hyundai settled the lawsuit by paying more than $200 million, STL Today reported.

Kia and Hyundai will pay more than $200 million for about 9 million vehicles that lack a standard anti-theft security device, allowing thieves to break into and drive off in many models of the cars in less than 90 seconds. The size of the car manufacturers’ total payout will depend on how many eligible drivers apply for repayment.

Owners can receive up to $6,125 for out-pocket-damages, including the total loss of their car. They’re also eligible for up to $3,375 for personal property, insurance-related expenses and other expenses such as alternative transportation.

The increase in carjackings of Kia and Hyundai vehicles spiked after a viral TikTok challenge showed people how to use a USB cable to steal a newer model of a KIA or Hyundai.

WATCH:

MUST SEE: If you drive a KIA or HYUNDAI, car thieves have figured out a way to START & STEAL your car. All with just a USB cable.

What started as a Tik Tok challenge has now caused Hyundai to send out an update to fix the security issue. Watch pic.twitter.com/wvALZZxGgj

— Teddy Tv (@edrTeddy) May 12, 2023

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Judge Napolitano’s Round Table and the Continued Delusions of David Petraeus

Judge Napolitano hosted Scott Ritter, Ray McGovern and me on this week’s round table. We discussed the death of Prigozhin and other intel and military matters relevant to Ukraine. We also touch on the latest buffoonery from retired General David Petraeus.

Regarding the recent oped in the Washington Post by retired General David Petraeus and uber neo-con Fred Kagan and brother-in-law of Victoria Nuland. (The article is behind a pay wall.) The delusional thinking presented in this piece removes any lingering doubts, in my opinion, about David’s incompetence as a military tactician and strategist. They write:

The rapid Ukrainian breakthrough and advance that many hoped for has not occurred. Media coverage has grown gloomier in recent weeks on the back of fragmentary journalistic accounts from the front and reported intelligence assessments from Western analysts. The news has not been great. The fight against Russia has proved to be bloody and slow — a very hard slog. But observers would be wise to temper their pessimism. War does not proceed in a linear fashion. Defenders can hold for a long time and then suddenly break, allowing an attacker to make rapid gains before the defense solidifies further to the rear. The Ukrainians aim to generate exactly this effect — and there is reason to think they can. Ukraine’s offensive push is far from over. In fact, it is still in the early stages — just 10 weeks into what is likely to last at least four more months. Penetrating a modern defense in depth such as the Russians established in southern Ukraine is a tall order for any military. The U.S. military has done it twice in modern memory, both times against Iraq. In 1991, after pummeling the Iraqi forces for 39 days from the air, a U.S.-led coalition of 650,000 troops penetrated and outflanked Iraqi defenses, crushing the Iraqi military in 100 hours. In 2003, a smaller U.S.-led force destroyed a badly degraded Iraqi military within a few weeks.

This article is the military version of the film, Dumb and Dumber. “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”

Let me remind you of the spectacularly wrong prediction Petraeus made in early June as the Ukrainian counter offensive kicked off:

I  think that the offensive is going to be much  more successful than many of the more pessimistic  analysts have been offering. I think that the  Ukrainians are very much ready for this. They’ll  be very distinctive because they will be using  employing Western tanks, western infantry,  fighting vehicles, western wheeled armored  vehicles and so forth. In large measure, for the  first time in this war, certainly in this number,  I think the Russians will prove to be more brittle  than the expectation is. Keep in mind, these units have been in combat for over a year. Many of them,  they have not been pulled off line to reconstitute  by being having forces replaced, equipment  replaced and repaired, and then doing training before they go back. They just get individual  replacements to fill the gap. They’re not well trained, they’re not well equipped, they’re not  well led. And I think that these Ukrainian forces, which are well trained, are well equipped. We are  going to break through. And then you might see a real dynamism to the battlefield that could give  real opportunities to the Ukrainians to exploit.

The problem with Petraeus is that he fails to grasp that the wars in Ir in 1991 and 2003 bear no relevance to what is taking place on the ground in Ukraine. People like Petraeus reveal an appalling ignorance of Russia’s military capabilities. It is one thing for Joe Blow in Dubuque, Iowa — who has never served in the military — to believe that Russian troops are poorly trained and poorly led. We are talking about the former head of the CIA. I guess he was too busy banging his mistress to take a moment or two to get a decent briefing on the Russian military. Even more stunning is his acknowledgment in his op-ed with Kagan that the success the U.S. achieved in Iraq on the initial invasion in 2003 depended on U.S. air supremacy and that Ukraine has no such advantage. He does not appear to comprehend the implications of this admission. Instead, like Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber, Petraeus insists “there is still a chance.” Petraeus was wrong in early June and he is wrong now. And the Ukrainians are paying a heavy bill in terms of blood and treasure because they listened to Western military planners just like Petraeus.

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