US Election and Politics News: Understanding Israel’s Intelligence Failure — Chats With Stephen Gardner And Michael Savage

There is a meme circulating accusing Bibi Netanyahu of having advance knowledge of the Hamas attack. According to this narrative, Bibi let it happen, believing it would be Israel’s 9-11 and that he could rally support for this divided government. I don’t buy it. Why? First, because he had to make deals with political opponents in order to form a government I find it hard to believe that those folks would go along with this kind of scam. Second, there are a lot of people in Mossad, Shin Bet (aka Israeli Security Agency) and Unit 8200 who do not like Netanyahu and would rat him out in a heartbeat if he pulled a stunt like this. Third, notwithstanding all of his flaws, I do not believe Bibi is the kind of man who would knowingly allow the murder of children, women and elderly. So what the hell happened?

Hamas is old school when it comes to plotting and planning. The Hamas leaders, I am told, shy away from social media, computers, smart phones and text messages (even WhatsAp and Signal). The do the planning and scheming in person or via couriers with hand written documents. How do you get that information? You have to recruit a spy — someone who is part of the network who will agree to rat on his friends. Despite a reputation for having quite a stable of human assets in terrorist groups, it appears Israel came up dry with a Hamas source.

There is a report that Egypt may have warned Israel. I find that plausible. That means that Mossad did not find the report credible or ignored it. That does happen in these intelligence organizations. But that is not some evil plot, that is good, old-fashioned human incompetence.

Netanyahu and his cohorts are behaving like Volodymyr Zelensky by talking openly about their intention to send a ground force into the Gaza Strip and to wipe out Hamas. It is always better not to telly your enemy and the world what you are intending to do. The Russians, by contrast, are pretty good at keeping their playing cards hidden and not tipping their hand.

Israel might want to reconsider its plan to bomb the Gaza Strip into a smoldering pile of rubble. The Nazis did that to Stalingrad in the early days of their attack on that city and created obstacles that prevented their tanks from maneuvering and provided the Soviets covered defensive positions. I wonder if Israeli planners are considering the possibility that Hamas is hoping to ambush Israeli tank columns from protected bunkers? Aerial and artillery bombardment provides no guarantee that reinforced defensive positions will be destroyed.

Finally, Biden ordered USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to hover off the Israeli coast. The last time the United States did something like this was in 1983, when the civil war in Lebanon raged. That did not turn out well for the Reagan Administration. When the United States intervened by firing on Hezbollah positions in the Beqaa Valley, Iran retaliated by blowing up the Marine barracks and the U.S. Embassy. Those two terrorist attacks killed 258 Marines and U.S. diplomats. If the U.S. engages Hamas targets this is likely to provoke a terrorist campaign directed against U.S. installations in the Middle East and Southwest Asia.

I discuss these issues, as well as the war in Ukraine, with Stephen Gardner and Michael Savage.